Mike James’ Week 7 NFL Picks
So, last week was shit. How is it Mike misses on just 1 pick through 5 weeks of NFL action, only to miss on all 3 picks he made in Week 6? Was arrogance his ultimate downfall? Will he redeem himself this week? Either way, it’s sure to be a gamble.
13-4-1 on the season and counting…
Houston +4.5 at Miami. To catch you up on things, the Miami Dolphins by many were expected to be one of the better teams in the AFC. Then they were total shit right out of the gate. We waited with baited breath each week for the news that their head coach Joe Philbin had been fired, and this came to pass Week 4 after a London beat down from the Jets. Enter Dan Campbell, a tight end’s coach with the nickname “Dantallica” who looks and acts like he went from being a guy who manages a strip mall GNC Store and spends his summers as a motivational speaker at fat camps, to somehow overnight being given head coaching duties in the NFL. The next thing you know the Dolphins come out of a bye week to win a game against a weak Tennessee team and all of a sudden everyone’s now guessing this master of puppets has his team playing up to their lofty preseason expectations. Now that you’re caught up, here’s the deal. Just like any Metallica record post the Black Album, I’m not buying it. The Miami Dolphins are incredibly overrated, the whole organization is a total mess to which no one single person is going to fix this season, or next for that matter, and this Sunday between the attack of the hottest QB to WR combo in the league right now in Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins, plus the returning to form of Arian Foster –not to mention Houston being a cool 7-0 lifetime against the Fins– and no matter how primordially inspired Miami continues to play, expecting them to win by 5 points or more this Sunday just doesn’t even begin to add up. As a whole this team will continue to be much better with Philbin gone, which, how could they not, but running smash mouth football against the top 10 rush defense of the Texans to set up play action with Tannehill under center twice as much as before and all that closer to J.J. Watt, probably isn’t going to work out too well. I’m predicting Miami’s first game at home with Lars Ulrich’s nephew leading the way goes about as well as the idea to record “Lulu” fared. Remember when Hoyer was anointed a hero for a few weeks last year in Cleveland? Woof woof? Good news, Texans fans, this is going to be another one of those weeks.
Indianapolis -4 vs New Orleans. Back home on the Bayou the Saints have won their last two but on the road they’re winless on the season, and it’s their road woes that’s sure to continue this week in Indianapolis. I can still see it all so clearly, it was just last week, the Colts were to be lambs to the slaughter against a Deflategate revenge filled Patriots, and if not for a “WHAT THE HELL WAS THAT?” failed special teams trickery, who knows, New England might have even ended up losing that game. Besides for Vegas cashing in on every sucker in the world who thought the Pats covering the spread was a no brainer (this sucker included), if you were paying close attention you noticed how Andrew Luck not only looked pretty good in his first game back from shoulder injury, he looked the best he’s been all season. Take this recent development and put it up against a Saints banged up defense that not only ranks 31st in pass rush, it also ranks 25th overall in pass coverage1, and this game gets out of hand early for New Orleans which allows the Colts to do something they haven’t been able to do all year, jump out to a lead and then lean on Gore to close the game out by running the ball. Indianapolis wins this by a touchdown or more and the questions about Sean Payton and Brees’ future in New Orleans continue to ramp up.
Arizona -8.5 vs Baltimore. The nightmare of losing on all my picks Week 6 began just after everything had been going according to script for Arizona in Pittsburgh. It was 10-3 at half in favor of the Cards on a rain soaked Heinz Field, Vick was again in over his head going 3-7 for 6 yards, as predicted, and all things considered given all the opportunities Arizona had, the Steelers were rather fortunate to not be down 2-3 touchdowns at the midway point. Then a man named Landry took over for an injured Vick early in the 3rd quarter and started throwing to Martavis Bryant who ended up with two of the best highlight TD’s of the week. I felt cheated. This week, however, Arizona makes amends against another team I failed on last week, the depleted and barren roster of the Baltimore Ravens. Did you see how bad the 49ers played against Seattle on Thursday night? That’s exactly why I liked the Ravens over the 49ers last Sunday. Apparently injuries are much worse in Baltimore than I had fully considered because no way an Ozzie Newsome and John Harbaugh led team is worse than that dog’s breakfast mess in San Francisco. Bottom line here, Arizona’s passing game is one of the best in the NFL, and Baltimore is plain awful at the moment and 0-5 against the spread on the year. Card’s win by 13 or more.
Some non-guarantees (tread with caution): I like Tennessee +6 vs Atlanta (because no one betting in Vegas likes Tennessee in this game and I learned my lesson last week when this is the case), Minnesota +1.5 in Detroit (the Vikings, y’all, better than you think), and Oakland +4 in San Diego (I’ll like this one even more if Gates can’t go with that sprained MCL). As for the Browns…just like everyone else I think Todd Gurley is going to run for no less than 500 yards against a Cleveland defense that’s been busy each week making rushing stars out of far lesser talents, but I do like the +6.5 points the Browns are currently getting. I just wouldn’t bet them to win. Go Browns.
– Mike James
The DC Show with host Mike James airs live every Monday morning from 9am-11:30am on WRUW-FM 91.1 Cleveland, and streams world wide here.
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